Ce gandeste Putin despre Ucraina

S E C R E T USNATO 000290 

NOFORN 
SIPDIS 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/05/2017 
TAGS: NATOPRELMOPSGGRS
SUBJECT: UKRAINE, MAP, AND THE GEORGIA-RUSSIA CONFLICT 

Classified By: Ambassador Kurt Volker for reasons 1.4 (b), (d) 

¶1.  (S/NF) Summary: As NATO Foreign Ministers gather to 
discuss the Georgia crisis, we also need to look ahead at the 
implications for Ukraine,s territorial integrity and its bid 
for a Membership Action Plan.  President Putin challenged 
Ukraine,s territorial integrity rhetorically at the 
Bucharest Summit.  Those words are now cause for greater 
concern as we look at Russia,s actions in Georgia.  We 
therefore need to give a strong boost to Ukraine,s 
territorial integrity, reaffirm the Bucharest decision that 
Ukraine and Georgia will become members of NATO, and begin to 
shape Allied thinking on a decision about Membership Action 
Plan this December.  End Summary. 

2 (S/NF) Events in Georgia are coloring Allies' views of 
Ukraine and its membership prospects at NATO.  Allies are 
divided on their perception of how the Bucharest Summit 
pledge of future membership to Georgia and Ukraine affected 
the current crisis.  The German-led Allies argue that the 
Bucharest decision on eventual membership 
provoked the Russian aggression, while most others (including 
the new members and Canada) see it as we do: that Russia 
interpreted the denial of MAP as a green light for action 
against Georgia. 

¶3. (S/NF) In the April 4 NATO-Russia Council Summit, Putin in 
his last days as Russian President implicitly challenged the 
territorial integrity of Ukraine, suggesting that Ukraine was 
an artificial creation sewn together from territory of 
Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, and especially Russia in 
the aftermath of the Second World 
War.  He stated, "the Crimea was simply given to Ukraine by a 
decision of the Politburo of the Soviet Communist Party 
Central Committee.  There haven't even been any state 
procedures regarding transfer of the territory, since we take 
a very calm and responsible approach to the problem."  Putin 
claimed that 90 percent of inhabitants of the Crimea are 
Russian, 17 out of 45 million Ukrainian citizens are Russian, 
and that Ukraine gained enormous amounts of its territory 
from the east and south at the expense of Russia.  He added, 
"if we add in the NATO question 
and other problems, the very existence of the State could 
find itself under threat."  Putin further questioned old 
borders and the worthiness of political leadership in 
neighboring countries during his August 9 Vladikavkahz 
speech.  These Russian challenges to the territorial 
integrity of neighboring states are inconsistent with the 
NATO-Russia Founding Act, the Rome Declaration, and take on 
profound new meaning in light of Russian military actions in 
Georgia. 

¶4. (S/NF) NATO needs to be mindful of the connective tissue 
between events in Georgia, Putin's threatening language on 
the territorial integrity of its neighbors, and Ukraine,s 
(and Georgia,s) MAP aspirations.  For many Allies, the 
Georgia-Russia conflict provides new impetus to moving 
Ukraine into MAP and toward NATO membership, provided 
Ukraine continues to request it.  Conversely, if the Kremlin 
achieves all of its objectives in Georgia with few 
consequences and its international reputation intact - as 
Germany and others would have it - this may only embolden 
Russia to increase its bullying behavior towards Ukraine and 
others in the neighborhood. 
VOLKER